You can't sign a lasting contract with someone who treats agreements like disposable napkins. That is the hard reality facing Canadian politicians right now as they scramble to avert punishing U.S. tariffs on billions of dollars in cross-border goods. While federal leaders negotiate under intense pressure, provincial heads are calling out the obvious elephant in the room. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew didn't mince words when describing the situation, pointing straight at an American president whose reputation for breaking his word is well earned.
Kinew's blunt assessment cuts through the polite diplomatic fictions usually trotted out during international trade disputes. The American president is erratic, unpredictable, and entirely unreliable when it comes to honoring commitments. Public opinion polls back up that healthy dose of skepticism. Recent data from the Angus Reid Institute shows that roughly seventy-five percent of Canadians simply do not trust Washington to stick to the terms of any trade deal once the ink dries.
The High Cost of Appeasement
Negotiating under the constant threat of sudden tariff hikes creates a toxic environment for Canadian businesses. Prime Minister Mark Carney has pushed hard to diversify international trade markets, aiming to double non-U.S. exports over the decade to break away from an over-reliance on southern neighbors. Yet, provincial leaders carry the immediate burden of deciding whether to bow to U.S. demands on home turf.
Take the ongoing fight over American alcohol on provincial store shelves. Back in 2025, provinces pulled U.S. wine, beer, and spirits as a direct retaliation against aggressive trade measures. Now, as part of frantic last-minute deal-making to stave off fifty percent duties on key exports, Ottawa has asked premiers to put those bottles back on display.
Some premiers are jumping at the chance to appease Washington, hoping a cooperative gesture buys temporary safety. Others are pushing back. Handing over concessions before a deal is locked in permanently sets a dangerous precedent. If you give away your leverage upfront, you have nothing left when the other side inevitably moves the goalposts.
Dealing With an Unpredictable White House
Trying to plan long-term manufacturing or steel production investments becomes nearly impossible when tariffs swing wildly based on morning social media posts. Steel tariffs might dip slightly in a tentative text, but they remain far higher than historical baselines before this trade war started.
Canadian workers at mills in Manitoba and across the Prairies deserve better than a cycle of temporary reprieves and sudden ultimatums. Premiers who urge caution are looking at the historical record. Deals forged under extreme economic coercion rarely survive contact with political reality.
Canada must protect its domestic industries while refusing to play a rigged game. Stand your ground, diversify trade routes away from a volatile market, and stop pretending that a handshake from an unpredictable counterpart means anything at all.
